← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, Feb 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense FC win | 39% | 36% | 2.47 | fair |
| Beira Mar win | 32% | 26% | 3.09 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 38% | 3.37 | value: +28% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Moreirense FC | Beira Mar |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1435.36 | 1440.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.17 | -17.92 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.35 |
| league points | 11.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 0.88 |
| state index | -1.05 | -0.79 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |