← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sat, Feb 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD Estoril Praia win | 47% | 49% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.36 | fair |
| Vitória SC win | 24% | 23% | 4.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | GD Estoril Praia | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 223.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1474.77 | 1571.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.84 | 13.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| league points | 19.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.24 |
| state index | -0.45 | 0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |