← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Tue, Feb 5, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 43% | 50% | 2.25 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.31 | fair |
| GD Estoril Praia win | 27% | 21% | 3.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | GD Estoril Praia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 249.00 | 219.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1560.29 | 1504.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 44.35 | -18.09 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | — |
| league points | 28.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.75 | 1.19 |
| state index | 0.74 | -0.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |