← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olhanense win | 36% | 40% | 2.68 | value: +7% |
| Academica win | 33% | 30% | 2.95 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.19 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olhanense | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1482.75 | 1467.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.48 | 31.41 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| league points | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.19 |
| state index | -0.44 | 0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |