← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 62% | 70% | 1.56 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 23% | 19% | 4.19 | fair |
| Moreirense FC win | 14% | 11% | 6.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Moreirense FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 125.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1542.60 | 1420.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.72 | -46.55 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | — |
| league points | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 0.50 |
| state index | 0.27 | -1.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |