← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC win | 35% | 35% | 2.80 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 35% | 35% | 2.81 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1477.24 | 1536.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.90 | -2.14 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| league points | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.19 |
| state index | -0.52 | -0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |