← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 88% | 92% | 1.11 | fair |
| Draw | 9% | 5% | 10.80 | fair |
| Setubal win | 3% | 2% | 29.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1313.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1846.33 | 1406.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.28 | -11.93 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| league points | 42.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.63 | 0.88 |
| state index | 1.71 | -0.99 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |