← Primeira Liga 2012-13 · Sun, Feb 3, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 62% | 57% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.13 | value: +3% |
| Beira Mar win | 15% | 18% | 6.69 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Beira Mar | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 125.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1435.68 | 1691.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.10 | -6.31 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| league points | 14.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.81 |
| state index | -0.63 | 0.75 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |