← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 65% | 80% | 1.44 | value: +15% ⚠ |
| Draw | 23% | 12% | 4.20 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 13% | 8% | 7.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 346.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1473.19 | 1904.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.08 | 21.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| league points | 28.00 | 72.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 2.48 |
| state index | -0.45 | 1.98 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |