← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sat, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 51% | 54% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 21% | 18% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 681.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1567.61 | 1463.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.85 | -7.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| league points | 49.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.69 | 1.03 |
| state index | -0.32 | -0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |