← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 73% | 73% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 20% | 5.50 | value: +10% |
| Beira Mar win | 9% | 8% | 12.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Beira Mar |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 309.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1700.21 | 1450.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.76 | 22.91 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| league points | 59.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.11 | 1.04 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |