← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 55% | 64% | 1.67 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.60 | fair |
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 19% | 11% | 5.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 339.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1899.57 | 1663.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.66 | 33.31 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| league points | 69.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 2.46 | 2.00 |
| state index | 1.85 | 0.92 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |