← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacos Ferreira win | 36% | 37% | 2.60 | fair |
| Rio Ave FC win | 34% | 34% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Rio Ave FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 674.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1465.37 | 1471.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.99 | -11.27 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 29.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 0.96 |
| state index | -0.36 | -0.61 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |