← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 36% | 33% | 2.60 | fair |
| Olhanense win | 35% | 35% | 2.70 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 32% | 3.20 | value: +3% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olhanense | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1497.83 | 1567.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.21 | -18.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| league points | 35.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.71 |
| state index | -0.04 | -0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |