← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 51% | 52% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 22% | 20% | 4.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 186.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1563.84 | 1486.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.16 | -5.54 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 38.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 1.11 |
| state index | 0.80 | -0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |