← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sat, May 5, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica win | 53% | 58% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| Setubal win | 20% | 16% | 4.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1407.74 | 1427.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.03 | 8.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 23.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.07 |
| state index | -1.60 | -0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |