← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Mon, Apr 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 62% | 64% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.00 | value: +4% |
| Academica win | 15% | 10% | 7.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1660.84 | 1410.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.54 | -39.84 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| league points | 53.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.96 | 0.85 |
| state index | 0.93 | -1.54 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.40 |