← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setubal win | 35% | 32% | 2.80 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 35% | 45% | 2.70 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 30% | 23% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 180.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1443.11 | 1548.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.68 | 29.58 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| league points | 30.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.30 |
| state index | 0.16 | 0.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |