← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sun, Apr 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leiria win | 38% | 36% | 2.50 | fair |
| Feirense win | 32% | 30% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.20 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leiria | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1377.21 | 1422.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.16 | -16.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 19.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 0.78 |
| state index | -0.72 | -0.71 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |