← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 62% | 67% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 19% | 4.00 | fair |
| Maritimo win | 14% | 14% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 332.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1573.37 | 1894.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.41 | 7.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| league points | 48.00 | 66.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.78 | 2.44 |
| state index | 0.09 | 1.83 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |