← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Fri, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 72% | 76% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 17% | 5.00 | fair |
| Olhanense win | 8% | 6% | 12.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Olhanense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 301.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1717.13 | 1480.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.38 | 6.21 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.15 |
| league points | 59.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 2.19 | 1.19 |
| state index | 0.75 | -0.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |