← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Mon, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica win | 44% | 46% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
| Olhanense win | 26% | 25% | 3.60 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Olhanense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1420.91 | 1470.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.52 | -4.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| league points | 23.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.12 |
| state index | -1.28 | -0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |