← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sun, Apr 22, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense win | 39% | 39% | 2.38 | fair |
| Setubal win | 30% | 32% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1413.29 | 1452.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.95 | 24.13 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| league points | 18.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 1.15 |
| state index | -1.49 | -0.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |