← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 82% | 90% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 6% | 7.50 | fair |
| Beira Mar win | 5% | 4% | 17.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Beira Mar |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 325.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1892.38 | 1438.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.18 | 17.99 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| league points | 63.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 2.42 | 1.00 |
| state index | 1.64 | -0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |