← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 73% | 71% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 22% | 5.00 | value: +9% |
| Maritimo win | 8% | 7% | 11.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1025.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| elo | 1782.27 | 1579.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.20 | -5.29 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| league points | 59.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 2.27 | 1.85 |
| state index | 1.11 | 0.35 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |