← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Fri, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 59% | 56% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.60 | value: +3% |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 15% | 15% | 6.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 659.00 | 294.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1474.72 | 1722.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.58 | -2.65 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| league points | 28.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 2.23 |
| state index | 0.02 | 0.89 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |