← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Mon, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 45% | 46% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 23% | 3.30 | fair |
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 26% | 31% | 3.60 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Portugal | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1013.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1639.13 | 1794.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.82 | -2.68 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| league points | 47.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 2.36 |
| state index | 0.71 | 1.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |