← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 41% | 47% | 2.25 | value: +6% |
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 30% | 26% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 281.00 | 311.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1729.37 | 1885.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.42 | -1.32 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| league points | 58.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 2.32 | 2.40 |
| state index | 1.24 | 1.54 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |