← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave FC win | 53% | 66% | 1.75 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 27% | 17% | 3.50 | fair |
| Feirense win | 19% | 17% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rio Ave FC | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1466.53 | 1410.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.20 | -36.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| league points | 24.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 0.68 |
| state index | -0.19 | -1.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |