← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sat, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 47% | 48% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.25 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 25% | 26% | 3.80 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 158.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1599.77 | 1537.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.59 | 9.24 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| league points | 48.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.92 | 1.28 |
| state index | 0.55 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |