← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Fri, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória SC win | 40% | 46% | 2.40 | value: +11% |
| Setubal win | 31% | 26% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Setubal | Vitória SC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1440.45 | 1573.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.79 | 10.63 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 27.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.56 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |