← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sun, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente FC win | 48% | 51% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
| Setubal win | 23% | 19% | 4.33 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | Setubal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1486.54 | 1427.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.41 | 26.45 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 26.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.00 |
| state index | -0.27 | -0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |