← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 79% | 84% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 11% | 7.00 | fair |
| Olhanense win | 6% | 4% | 15.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Olhanense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 304.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1883.06 | 1484.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.70 | 23.87 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| league points | 57.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.96 |
| season ppg | 2.38 | 1.21 |
| state index | 1.54 | 0.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |