← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 52% | 56% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.60 | fair |
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 21% | 22% | 4.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1004.00 | 274.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1788.08 | 1736.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.73 | 30.57 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| league points | 56.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 2.42 |
| state index | 0.97 | 1.58 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.00 |