← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Fri, Mar 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 40% | 36% | 2.40 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.10 | fair |
| Academica win | 30% | 32% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1436.48 | 1592.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.10 | 2.15 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| league points | 23.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.88 |
| state index | -0.99 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |