← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Mon, Mar 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 70% | 83% | 1.33 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 21% | 13% | 4.75 | fair |
| Academica win | 9% | 5% | 11.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sporting Clube de Braga | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 269.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1733.97 | 1438.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.60 | -5.42 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| league points | 55.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| rest days | 8.96 | 7.96 |
| season ppg | 2.39 | 1.00 |
| state index | 1.75 | -0.96 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |