← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Mon, Mar 26, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 55% | 59% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.50 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 19% | 16% | 5.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1614.50 | 1523.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.71 | -14.74 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| league points | 42.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 6.96 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.13 |
| state index | 0.70 | -0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |