← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 68% | 78% | 1.36 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 22% | 12% | 4.33 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 10% | 10% | 10.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 633.00 | 298.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1463.38 | 1890.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.26 | 8.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| league points | 24.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.96 | 8.96 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 2.43 |
| state index | -0.23 | 1.69 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |