← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD Nacional win | 37% | 28% | 2.63 | fair |
| Beira Mar win | 33% | 32% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 40% | 3.10 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Beira Mar | CD Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 145.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1447.39 | 1542.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.12 | 13.37 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| league points | 20.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.96 | 8.96 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 1.13 |
| state index | -0.74 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |