← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Fri, Mar 23, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 65% | 69% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 18% | 4.33 | fair |
| Olhanense win | 11% | 14% | 8.50 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olhanense | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 996.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1478.62 | 1794.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.02 | -25.73 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| league points | 28.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 2.39 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.87 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |