← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Mon, Mar 19, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal win | 49% | 50% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 23% | 24% | 4.33 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gil Vicente FC | Sporting Clube de Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1472.47 | 1650.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.49 | -10.33 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| league points | 23.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.86 |
| state index | -0.54 | 0.38 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |