← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 18, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica win | 40% | 45% | 2.38 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.10 | fair |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 30% | 24% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Academica | Pacos Ferreira |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 626.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1450.45 | 1451.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.06 | 3.62 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 23.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 0.95 |
| state index | -0.98 | -0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |