← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Braga win | 61% | 68% | 1.57 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 24% | 19% | 3.80 | fair |
| Feirense win | 14% | 13% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | Sporting Clube de Braga |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 260.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1439.45 | 1726.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.75 | 36.42 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| league points | 17.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 2.36 |
| state index | -1.02 | 1.66 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |