← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Fri, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 65% | 67% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.20 | fair |
| CD Nacional win | 12% | 12% | 7.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | CD Nacional | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 136.00 | 289.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1519.04 | 1886.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.01 | 5.88 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| league points | 26.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 2.41 |
| state index | 0.06 | 1.64 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |