← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 64% | 54% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 32% | 4.00 | value: +30% |
| Pacos Ferreira win | 12% | 14% | 8.00 | value: +8% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pacos Ferreira | Sport Lisboa e Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 619.00 | 984.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1455.14 | 1788.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.21 | -24.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.60 |
| league points | 21.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.33 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.76 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |