← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 11, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beira Mar win | 38% | 42% | 2.50 | value: +4% |
| Gil Vicente FC win | 32% | 28% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Beira Mar | Gil Vicente FC |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1420.29 | 1482.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.02 | 19.63 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| league points | 17.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.10 |
| state index | -1.47 | -0.09 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |