← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sat, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto win | 82% | 87% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 8% | 8.00 | fair |
| Academica win | 6% | 5% | 15.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Porto | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 283.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1895.56 | 1441.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.15 | -17.03 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| league points | 52.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 2.48 | 1.05 |
| state index | 1.67 | -0.97 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |