← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Fri, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo win | 61% | 65% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.75 | fair |
| Feirense win | 13% | 14% | 7.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Maritimo | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1584.99 | 1444.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.66 | -21.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| league points | 38.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 0.81 |
| state index | 0.47 | -1.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |