← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Sun, Mar 4, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense win | 39% | 40% | 2.40 | fair |
| Academica win | 31% | 27% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 34% | 3.10 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feirense | Academica |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1446.13 | 1439.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.71 | -21.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 16.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.05 |
| state index | -0.97 | -1.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |