← Primeira Liga 2011-12 · Fri, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica win | 37% | 42% | 2.50 | value: +5% |
| FC Porto win | 34% | 28% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sport Lisboa e Benfica | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 975.00 | 275.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1797.65 | 1886.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.87 | -18.91 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.55 |
| league points | 49.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 2.45 | 2.45 |
| state index | 1.19 | 1.39 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |